Season

Survival in first year back in the top flight – a look at the stats

HSV can already start planning for next season, having achieved their target of staying up after just 32 matchdays. That is a major success in and of itself, with 43 percent of all promoted Bundesliga sides going straight back down.

Hamburg let out one huge sigh of relief on Sunday evening. Not only did FC St. Pauli first lose at home to 1. FSV Mainz 05 in the afternoon, VfL Wolfsburg were then held to a draw away at SC Freiburg later in the day, meaning the Rothosen’s Bundesliga survival was confirmed at the end of matchday 32. Unlike in so many previous years, HSV have avoided any final-day drama and can start planning for next season with two games still to play – something they had not managed for 13 years, since finishing seventh in 2012/13. That is all the more impressive given HSV only came back up last summer and then underwent a major rebuild under sporting director Claus Costa.

Survival has not been a given for promoted sides in Bundesliga history. People often say the second year is always the hardest, but the numbers suggest otherwise. Up until this season, 43 percent of all promoted clubs in Bundesliga history (156) were relegated again straight away. In the second year, that figure drops to just 19 percent. Statistically speaking, HSV have already cleared a major hurdle on their way back to becoming an established top-flight club again. “Progress is not always linear and there will always be setbacks, but the overall development of the club is positive,” HSV board member Eric Huwer explained after the 2-1 away win in Frankfurt. The 42-year-old knows what he is talking about, having been with the club for more than 10 years.

Anyone who listened closely to head coach Merlin Polzin at the press conference before matchday 1 away at Borussia Mönchengladbach (0-0) will have known from the start. “Nobody needs to worry about us,” said the Hamburg native. Apart from one exception after matchday 3, the Rothosen have always been clear of the relegation places. Since the introduction of three points for a win, promoted Bundesliga sides had averaged 37 points in their first season up until this campaign. HSV currently have 34, with an eight-point cushion over the relegation play-off place. In their final two games of the season, at home to Freiburg and away in Leverkusen, HSV can still reach the “magic” 40-point mark.

HSV are currently one of 10 teams who have not been relegated again since coming up to the Bundesliga. The Rothosen have now joined that group, while 1. FC Heidenheim (since 2023/24) and VfL Wolfsburg (since 1997/98), for example, are in danger of dropping off that list. FC Bayern München have been in the German top flight the longest, having been there since 1965/66. Speaking of standout achievements, the 1997/98 season will never be forgotten, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern sensationally won the title as a promoted side under Otto Rehhagel. RB Leipzig were the last promoted club to get close to similar heights, finishing second in 2016/17. Yussuf Poulsen was part of that squad – and almost 10 years later, on Sunday evening, he was able to celebrate another successful season as a promoted player. Just like so many others at HSV, who could finally breathe easy.